2013 John Gandel Symposium
Israel’s former chief negotiator to Syria in the 1990s, Prof. Itamar Rabinovich, was next to take the podium, providing an intriguing analysis of the country’s civil war. He compared the two year-long conflict to the Spanish Civil War of the 1930s, whereby external actors played a critical part in the conflict. In the case of Syria he stated that outside forces – namely the West on the one hand, and Russia, Iran and the Hezbollah on the other – are playing a key role in the internal political conflict raging in Syria. With all Arab eyes now on Syria, Rabinovich stated that the future of the Arab Spring would be largely determined by the outcome of the Syrian Civil War. He hypothesized that the most likely outcome would be a protracted conflict similar to that seen in Iraq, characterized by sectarian violence and the weakening of central state authority.
Highlighting the interests of two pro-Assad countries – Russia and Iran – Rabinovich stressed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is committed to preserving the Syrian regime, viewing its replacement with a pro-western government as untenable. Putin’s decision to supply the Assad regime with advanced weapons systems testifies to this, resulting in a “dangerous regional and international game” in which Israel is threatening to destroy such sophisticated weaponry upon its delivery to the Assad regime. Rabinovich also addressed Iran’s investment in Syria, with the regional power intent on preserving Syria as a land bridge that connects Iran and its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon.