2013 John Gandel Symposium
Prof. Shimon Shamir, Israel’s third ambassador to Egypt between 1988 and 1990, analyzed the similarly tumultuous situation in Egypt. He argued that although the Egyptian uprising – and indeed the entire Arab Spring – is considered by many to be driven primarily by popular thirst for democracy, ethnic and religious rivalries are also key drivers of the violence engulfing the Middle East.
Shamir discussed the internal challenges facing Egypt, highlighting its political instability, economic malaise, breakdown of law and order, lack of natural resources, and a inability to manage its commercial interests in a globalized market. He drew attention to the sectarian violence between Muslims and Christians in the country, stating that “the Copts are in a mood of despair – tens of thousands are emigrating because they feel that they have no future under an Islamist government”. Of all these challenges gripping Egypt, Shamir identified the economy as the most pressing concern, and cited greater openness and productivity in the technological, industrial and academic realms as the most effective means to strengthen Egypt’s economic position.
In addition to the economic challenges, Shamir listed three key challenges now facing the Morsi administration: the opposition, which accuses Morsi of being dictatorial and implementing an Islamization of state and society; the judiciary, which is stacked with anti-Morsi judges who served during the Mubarak era; and the military, which refuses to get involved in domestic rivalries between the country’s competing political forces. As a result of these difficulties, Shamir asserted that Morsi is not as strong as many consider him to be, and that much of Israel’s apprehension at the fall of Mubarak has turned out to be misguided. The peace treaty remains intact, security cooperation continues, and Hamas is seen as a threat by Egypt, not as a natural ally.